demographic swingometer

In collaboration with NBC News, the Cook Political Report is pleased to unveil a new interactive feature that allows you to see how shifts in turnout and support among five demographic groups could swing the Electoral College. Unsurprisingly considering he carried that group by just over 40% in 2016, securing 67% of their vote, according to the Pew Research Center . Download Projections of the Population of Voting Age for States: November 1984 - Report [PDF - <1.0 MB] This report presents projections of the November 1976 population of voting age for States by race and broad age groups as a reference for the upcoming Presidential election. I honestly don't believe this will be a close election. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Private Message. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state — as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national . 0 comments. Subscribe Now. by hnds2th. Joined: Mar 27, 2003 Posts: 11,540 User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring. Its default looks like this. mslags97. Log in or sign up to leave a comment. Then, adjust the . Log In Sign Up. 332. I don't know enough about demographics numbers for this to be useful. I honestly don't believe this will be a close election. Joined: Jan 7, 2003 Posts: 9,264 User Profile. Four years ago, Donald Trump won the White House while losing the popular vote by 2.9 million to Hillary Clinton, thanks to a near-perfect geographic vote distribution that allowed him to win big Electoral College prizes by razor-thin margins. ME MA MI MT NV NJ NY NC OH PA RI TN TX . One of them said the national polls didn't line up with his local polling. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. Ignore User Stop . We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population . I listened to a couple of pollsters on the radio today. Finally, we adjusted the size of each demographic group by doubling census-estimated population change for voting-age citizens from 2016 to 2018. 16 comments . The swingometer thus underestimated the number of seats that would switch hands. 2020 Election Demographic "Swingometer" 3,634 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aggiehawg. on 10/16/20 at 8:21 pm to makersmark1. The Cook Political Report's Demographic Swingometer lets you predict the election outcome based on the votes and turnout percentages for five different demographic groups. 100% Upvoted. 69,112,958. Small changes in the parameters can lead to large changes in the outcome. The Cook Political Report . You must be a subscriber to . ME MA MI MT NV NJ NY NC OH PA RI TN TX . Quick Calculations The seats that fell, according to the Swingometer, in order of swing necessary to take the seat (* denotes the seat actually fell): IN-9 * (Sodrel-Hill) PA-6 (Gerlach-Murphy) CT-4 (Shays-Farrell) WA-8 (Reichert-Burner) CO-4 (Musgrave-Paccione) Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. P25-626. This chart shows the two-party-preferred swing by electorate. One thing that is interesting is comparing the projected vote margin using 2016 turnout and vote shares with 4 years of demographic change that the Cook swingometer projects to the actual results, we can compare all the swing states to see where one side may have gotten better turnout compared to 2016 or shifted the voting patterns of different groups to get a different result than the . Sort by: best. For example, if you lower black and Hispanic turnout by 2% each due . by hnds2th. How long do you want to ignore this user? Credits Data analysis by David Wasserman. This measure looks only at the two . Demographic Change Since 2016 Alone Could Be Enough to Defeat Trump. More posts from the YAPms community. Subscribe Now. 100% Upvoted. Secondly, the Cook Political Report issued a "2020 Demographic Swingometer" showing graphically what would happen if you were to take the exact demographic breakdown in the 2016 Presidential vote, and adjust it for changes in those demographics over the last 4 years (e.g., a slight increase in Minority population, and a slight increase in . A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and the Cook Political Report finds that if 2016's turnout and support rates were applied to 2020's new demographic realities, Trump would narrowly lose Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — more than enough to swing the presidency to Joe Biden. WARNING: CALCULATIONS MAY BE OFF WHEN TURNOUT GOES ABOVE 90% OR BELOW 10%. 47.7. You can also leave comments there. If Biden swings 8% or more with the non-college white demographic while holding Clinton's margins with college-educateds, he wins the election. Log In Sign Up. Captn_Ag05. Joined: Jan 7, 2003 Posts: 9,264 User Profile. You can use the Swing-O-Matic to see how national shifts in turnout and partisanship within seven demographic groups would affect the outcome of the 2016 election in each state. Alternative Vote Swingometer. Finally, we adjusted the size of each demographic group by doubling census-estimated population change for voting-age citizens from 2016 to 2018. The swingometer thus underestimated the number of seats that would switch hands. ‹ 1972 1980 › United States presidential election, 1976 November 1, 1976 Nominee Richard Nixon: Jerry Brown Party Democratic Socialist Home state We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. This is because individual US states are so different in terms of ethnicity, demographics and individual issues that you cannot simply assume that all 50 states will move in the… HOW IT WORKS: Start with the results of the previous election, adjusted for demographic change since 2016. The Cook Political Report's Demographic Swingometer lets you predict the election outcome based on the votes and turnout percentages for five different demographic groups. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page. The Swingometer is a British term used by pollsters and the media for their Parliamentary elections. How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party's candidate by the five demographic groups. Four years ago, Donald Trump won the White House while losing the popular vote by 2.9 million to Hillary Clinton, thanks to a near-perfect geographic vote distribution that allowed him to win big Electoral College prizes by razor-thin margins. Discussion. 2020 Election Demographic "Swingometer" 3,636 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aggiehawg. 47.7. advanced degrees). When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state — as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national . Some surprising results The conventional wisdom is that using national voting figures in US Elections, especially in terms of voting swings, is a futile device. More posts from the YAPms community. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. If biden wins I think it will be 2018. You must be a subscriber to . 2020 Election Demographic "Swingometer" 3,634 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aggiehawg. WARNING: CALCULATIONS MAY BE OFF WHEN TURNOUT GOES ABOVE 90% OR BELOW 10%. But Assuming the rest numbers are the accepted current values, Biden could lose a lot of the Latino vote and still win. Of all the demographics the tool has data for, the white non-college educated group is the only one where Republicans command a healthy lead. Popular Vote Percentage. The latest Tweets from Swing-O-Meter Election News (@SwingMeter). 52.3. is pleased to unveil a new interactive feature that allows you to see how shifts in turnout and support among five demographic groups could swing the Electoral College. 2020 Election Demographic "Swingometer" 3,636 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aggiehawg. Mostly because of PA. HOW IT WORKS: Start with the results of the previous election, adjusted for demographic change since 2016. Private Message. Subscribe Now. re: 2020 Demographic Swingometer Posted. Captn_Ag05. It is predicted Trump carriers them by nearly 40%. on 10/16/20 at 8:21 pm to makersmark1. . One of them said the national polls didn't line up with his local polling. I see things going a few ways.. it seems that Trump is losing ground with white voters. You must be a subscriber to . The swingometer: see which electorates are swinging to Labor or the Coalition in the election. mslags97. A Political and Election Junkie. Credits Data analysis by David Wasserman. swingometer 2024 | swingometer 2024 | swingometer 2020 | election swingometer 2020 | 2020 democratic swingometer | 2020 demographic swingometer 105. The swingometer: see which electorates are swinging to Labor or the Coalition in the election. advanced degrees). Once Swingometer was updated on the website, it was inevitable that the new version of Swingometer on iOS would come!. 206. 206. I don't know enough about demographics numbers for this to be useful. 105. Included are estimates of the population of voting age and . re: 2020 Demographic Swingometer Posted. http://www.electionpolling.. Subscribe Now. Unsurprisingly considering he carried that group by just over 40% in 2016, securing 67% of their vote, according to the Pew Research Center . Cook Demographic Swingometer Settings That Best Represent 2020. But Assuming the rest numbers are the accepted current values, Biden could lose a lot of the Latino vote and still win. swingometer. How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party's candidate by the five demographic groups. Then, adjust the sliders below to see how shifts in turnout and support among five demographic groups could swing . 69,112,958. Of all the demographics the tool has data for, the white non-college educated group is the only one where Republicans command a healthy lead. How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party's candidate by the five demographic groups. The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. Mostly because of PA. The polling indicates that Biden is doing better in rural areas as well. Ignore User Stop . Cook Demographic Swingometer Settings That Best Represent 2020. 332. The swingometer thus underestimated the number of seats that would switch hands. I listened to a couple of pollsters on the radio today. Cook Political Report Demographic Swingometer. Joined: Mar 27, 2003 Posts: 11,540 User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring. 52.3. P25-626. Demographic Change Since 2016 Alone Could Be Enough to Defeat Trump. Electoral College Vote. Electoral College Vote. If you have any questions about the swingometer, please read the introductory post which includes instructions, justifications for various assumptions made in constructing it, and so on. This measure looks only at the two . Posted by freedomforall 1 year, 2 months ago to Politics. It is predicted Trump carriers them by nearly 40%. How long do you want to ignore this user? Sort by: best. Log in or sign up to leave a comment. YouTuber at Swing-O-Meter Elections. Included are estimates of the population of voting age and . This chart shows the two-party-preferred swing by electorate. You must be a subscriber to . . You can use the Swing-O-Matic to see how national shifts in turnout and partisanship within seven demographic groups would affect the outcome of the 2016 election in each state. The seats that fell, according to the Swingometer, in order of swing necessary to take the seat (* denotes the seat actually fell): IN-9 * (Sodrel-Hill) PA-6 (Gerlach-Murphy) CT-4 (Shays-Farrell) WA-8 (Reichert-Burner) CO-4 (Musgrave-Paccione) This is because individual US states are so different in terms of ethnicity, demographics and individual issues that you cannot simply assume that all 50 states will move in the same way. This page contains the general election swingometer used to predict election results for the next general election as well as a collection of historical swingometers. The conventional wisdom is that using national voting figures in US Elections, especially in terms of voting swings, is a futile device. Small changes in the parameters can lead to large changes in the outcome. Its default looks like this. . If biden wins I think it will be 2018. Discussion. HOW IT WORKS: Start with the results of the previous election, adjusted for demographic change since 2016. 0 comments. This new version has the same updates as the website (2010 House returns and 2010 Census), but also includes updates for the Retina display on iPhone 4, as well as support for the iPad's larger screen. United States Popular Vote Percentage. 2020 Presidential Election Demographic Swingometer. How does the swing-O-Matic work? An issue he pointed out was with highly educated voters (I.e. An issue he pointed out was with highly educated voters (I.e. Download Projections of the Population of Voting Age for States: November 1984 - Report [PDF - <1.0 MB] This report presents projections of the November 1976 population of voting age for States by race and broad age groups as a reference for the upcoming Presidential election. For example, if you lower black and Hispanic turnout by 2% each due . 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